UFC 105 Predictions

November 13, 2009 – Geoff Filleti

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera

Randy Couture is making the move down to Light Heavyweight for this bout; although it is hardly uncharted territory for the seasoned veteran. Couture has bounced back and forth between HW and LHW throughout his career, picking up a few titles in each weight class along the way. This bout comes at a turbulent time for Randy however; coming off a pair of losses to current champ Brock Lesnar, and fellow veteran Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira respectively. At this point in his career, Randy has not won a bout since 2007, and is coming into this fight at the arguably ripe age of 46. Randy essentially must win this match to prove that he can still fight at a competitive level; a loss for Randy here will undoubtedly bring up the familiar discussion of retirement for the living legend.

Brandon Vera seems to be incapable of pleasing fans for the past few years. His losses in the HW division against Fabricio Werdum and Tim Sylvia pushed him down into the LHW division; where he has yet to impress with his mediocre performances. Vera has shown glimpses of greatness, with a notable victory over Frank Mir; but Vera has never been consistent. Although he is coming off back to back victories at his new home at LHW; both the fans and Vera himself have set the expectations for his performances so high, that even his wins seem lackluster. A win here over Randy will add a much needed name to his resume, and possibly show everyone that Vera has more than just potential.

This match has huge implications for the careers of both fighters; and I’m going to hate to see either one lose. Unfortunately, someone is going to walk away with the victory, and I have to give the edge here to Brandon “The Truth” Vera. Couture has looked exceedingly slower as of late; while Vera has looked to have gotten faster and become a lot more comfortable with his new weight class. I simply don’t think the aging Couture will be able to keep up with the younger, quicker and hungrier Vera. This will certainly be a huge step up in competition for Vera, but if he is ever going to step up to the plate, now would be the time to do it. Vera will most likely pull off a decision victory, but a TKO in the later rounds could be possible as well.

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy

Mike Swick was added to the card as a replacement for an injured Kim Dong-hyun; an opportunity which I’m sure Swick was fast to take. Mike Swick had actually missed his scheduled bout with Martin Kampmann at UFC 103, and since Kampmann lost that bout, Swick is now first in line for a title shot; assuming he can pull off a win here over Hardy. Swick has had a long and successful career so far in the UFC, holding a 9-1 record within the octagon. If Swick can pull off the victory here, he will finally get his well deserved shot against the undisputed welterweight king, Georges St. Pierre.

Dan Hardy certainly has the home field advantage fighting across the pond, but he is going to need all the help he can get. The English native has only fought 3 times in the UFC; however, all three of those bouts have been impressive outings. He holds victories over several veteran opponents including Akihiro Gono and Marcus Davis. Dan Hardies short career in the octagon has certainly been notable, but this bout with Swick will easily be his biggest test to date.

This fight is important because it will essentially dictate the next Welterweight contender. While Swick is widely considered to be the favorite; I see this fight being extremely competitive. Swick believes he has earned a match with St. Pierre, and now is his chance to prove it once and for all. I give this one to Swick, but barely; look for a decision victory here.

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang

Michael Bisping is now better known for the highlight reel KO he suffered at the hands of Dan Henderson; but before that, he was England’s MMA poster child. Bisping sits with an impressive 18-2 record, with his only losses coming from Rashad Evans and the aforementioned Henderson. The hype train for Bisping was quickly derailed following his most recent loss, but a win here is crucial to ensure that it is quickly put back on track.

Denis Kang is a true warhorse; having fought 46 professional bouts in his 10 year career. While he is not new to the sport of MMA, he has only fought twice in the UFC, holding a record of 1-1 within the octagon. Kang needs to prove that he has the skill to go along with his ample experience, and Michael Bisping is his proving ground. A win over Bisping will certainly give him some much needed recognition amongst the casual fans, but another loss here will essentially make him a non-factor in the Middleweight Division.

Bisping was in desperate need of a lower-tier opponent to get him back on track; but Denis Kang is not that opponent. This just isn’t a good matchup for Bisping, who has won the majority of his bouts by knockout; while Kang has only been knocked out twice during his lengthy career. Denis Kang also has a far superior ground game; with the majority of his wins coming by way of submission. Based on the styles of these two fighters, I can see this fight only going one way; a big victory for Kang via submission.

James Wilks vs. Matt Brown

James Wilks is the TUF 9 welterweight champion, who, like many of the fighters on this card, is fighting out of England. Wilks is actually a fairly green fighter, with a short record of 6-2. This bout will be the first fight for Wilks since the TUF finale, and will also be the first real test of skill for the rookie.

Matt Brown is also a fellow TUF alumnus, having competed in season 7. Brown did not make it past the quarter finals, but pulled off a victory at the finale, which ultimately earned him a contract with the UFC. He has made a decent run in the organization so far, with a record of 3-1, but he has yet to defeat any top competition.

This clash of the TUF veterans is going to be extremely important for both fighters, as each one is looking to use this bout as a stepping stone for their careers. Both men are fairly unproven, and we have not really seen enough of them in the cage to judge their skill level. That said; I am expecting James Wilks to live up to his expectations as a TUF winner, and pull off a decision victory.

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley

Ross Pearson was the TUF 9 Lightweight champion, and like Wilks, this will be his first bout following the TUF finale. Pearson currently sits with 12 bouts under his belt, but has yet to face any top competition. Pearson will be looking to prove himself in this bout, and has some fairly large shoes to fill as a TUF winner.

Aaron Riley is a seasoned veteran fighting out of Greg Jackson’s camp. While he has a wealth of experience, he has struggled with his inconsistency, leaving him with a record of 28-11. Riley has looked great as of late however; recently avenging his controversial loss to Shane Nelson at UFC 101. Riley has taken a long and difficult road into the UFC; a loss here would be a massive setback. It is unclear how many more chances he will be given to proven himself; but it is very clear that he can not afford to lose.

While Aaron Riley is the much more experienced fighter; he has never shown much more than mediocrity within the UFC, holding a 3-2 record in the octagon. While Pearson is completely unproven at this point; I believe he has immense potential; and Riley is going to serve as his first stepping stone. I am picking Pearson to pull of a decision victory here, and begin his successful UFC career.

Bonus Picks:

Paul Taylor vs. John Hathaway

Terry Etim vs. Shannon Gugerty

Nick Osipczak vs. Matthew Riddle

Paul Kelly vs. Dennis Siver

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jared Hamman

Andre Winner vs. Rolando Delgado