Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua

Lyoto Machida is coming off a brutal KO victory over TUF alumnus Rashad Evans; a fight which quickly put to rest any questions about the knockout power of the Dragon. Machida not only answered his critics with that explosive knockout, but he became the new LHW champion and “The Machida Era” was born. I wouldn’t be so quick to agree. I believe that the LHW division is in dire need of a dominant champion, a role which has been left vacant since the fall of Chuck Liddell. The LHW belt has changed hands 3 times since the reign of Chuck ended, with the title only being successfully defended once in 2007 by everyone’s favorite A-Team member, Rampage Jackson. Considering the complete and utter dominance exhibited by such current champions as BJ Penn, George St. Pierre, and Anderson Silva, Machida is easily the most untested belt holder among them. The upcoming fight with Shogun Rua will be the first title defense by Machida.

Shogun Rua is coming off a KO victory over the dancing brawler, Chuck Liddell. The win is less than impressive when you stop to consider that the fight was Liddell’s 4th loss in his past 5 bouts. Prior to that fight, Shogun got a knockout win over MMA founding father Mark Coleman. Again, this win was less than impressive when you consider Coleman’s age and the fact that, like Chuck, Coleman came into the bout following a loss. So why then is Shogun even a contender for the belt? The simple answer is because Shogun has potential. For those PRIDE fans who watched Shogun stomp his way to victory in the 2005 Middleweight GP, the power of Shogun is apparent. During his stint in Japan Shogun had accumulated an impressive list of victories over some of the biggest names in the sport. While Shogun has not looked fantastic in his latest UFC bouts, he was at one point great and that is a fact which cannot be overlooked. If we get a glimpse of the Shogun of old, Machida is in for a big surprise. A victory for Shogun over Machida would not only be a massive upset, it would mark a triumphant return to greatness for one of the most exciting and promising LHW in the history of the sport.

Machida vs. Shogun is one of the most anticipated fights of the year, and I am fully expecting this battle to live up to the monumental hype. That said, while my heart is rooting for Rua, my brain cannot come to any other logical conclusion than a big victory for Machida via TKO.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

Cain Valesquez is one of the rising stars in the UFC Heavyweight Division. He is currently on a 6-fight win streak, with 5 of those victories coming by way of TKO. All of those knockouts have come within the first 2 rounds of the bout. The biggest test to date for Cain was his recent bout with Cheick Kongo. Cain dominated the hard-hitting Kongo for the majority of the fight, eventually pulling off victory by unanimous decision. Cain was rocked a few times by Kongo but he managed to recover quickly. It showed that Cain has a tough chin but his standup game has some very large and dangerous holes. Cain’s superior wrestling in this match was enough for him to force his will upon Kongo for all 3 rounds.

Ben Rothwell is not quite a household name, but he is not new blood by any means. Rothwell has an impressive record of 30-6 with 17 victories coming by way of knockout. Ben has knocked out more than twice as many people as Cain Velasquez has fought. Rothwell certainly has the edge in the experience department, and he is looking to use that to his advantage in this bout. Big Ben had an extremely impressive run in the now defunct IFL, racking up a 9 fight win streak while dominating the HW division there. A victory over Velasquez here will put Rothwell in line as a serious HW contender and ensure that the mainstream fans remember his name.

This fight is extremely important for the careers of both fighters. A win for Velasquez solidifies his standing as a serious contender for the HW belt. A win for Rothwell will ensure he is taken seriously as a threat in the UFC HW division. For this fight, I am going with the underdog, Big Ben Rothwell. I was extremely surprised to see that Cain was a fairly heavy favorite going into this fight. I agree that Cain has some serious potential, but I’m not buying the hype. The toughest opponent that Cain has ever faced was Kongo, a heavy striker with a terrible ground game. Cain was able to use his wrestling to control Kongo and pull out a decision victory, but I would be interested to see how well Cain will be able to control someone with the well-rounded skill set of Rothwell. Cain’s stand-up skills are inferior to Rothwell, and the ground game of Cain is going to be easily neutralized by Ben. I see Big Ben getting the victory here by way of TKO early in this bout. Ben Rothwell is going to be making a huge splash in the UFC this coming Saturday, and it’s been a long time coming.

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer

Gleison Tibau is coming off a controversial split decision loss to Melvin Guillard back at the TUF 9 finale. Tibau has been fighting professionally for almost a decade, but has been plagued by his inconsistent performance. He has fought some big names in the sport throughout his career. However, he sits with an unimpressive 6-4 record within the octagon. Coming off the loss to Guillard, Tibau is in a situation where he essentially must win to stay relevant in the division. He certainly has the experience, and he has shown great potential in the past. The question is whether or not he can deliver on all that potential.

Josh Neer was added to the card as a replacement for an injured Sean Sherk. While he took the fight on somewhat of a short notice, I’m sure he jumped at the chance to avenge the loss he suffered at the hands of Kurt Pellegrino a mere 2 months ago. In his decision loss to Pellegrino, Neer was controlled through all 3 rounds, and displayed a suspect ground game as he was kept on his back for the majority of the fight. Neer has had a moderately successful career up to this point in the UFC with a record of 10-5 in the octagon. Much like Tibau, Neer is coming off of a loss and is looking to prove himself as a relevant fighter within the organization.

This fight should be one of the more interesting bouts on the card, as there is really no clear favorite to win. Tibau is at his best on the ground with amazing BJJ and strong wrestling, winning the majority of his bouts by way of submission. Neer has also won more matches by submission than any other method and uses his strong wrestling to maintain control. I see this fight taking place on the ground for the majority and on the ground Tibau is going to have the advantage with his superior BJJ. Look for Tibau to pull off a victory via submission in the later rounds. I will say however that Tibau seems to have a habit of not finishing his fights, so I would not be surprised to see Tibau pull off a decision after controlling Neer on the ground for 3 rounds.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

Joe Stevenson had lost 3 of his last 4 bouts before pulling off a unanimous decision victory over Nate Diaz back in June. Not to say that Stevenson isn’t in good company- his losses were to Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, and BJ Penn- but Stevenson needs to do some serious damage control. If he wants to make another run for the title any time soon, he is going to need to pull together a few more victories and can’t really afford another loss. A victory here over Fisher could be the start of a nice comeback for the man who had been considered the top contender for the belt only one year ago. Considering that Stevenson’s last two fights have won the “Fight of the Night” honors, expect Joe to put on a great show.

Spencer Fisher is currently on a 3 fight winning streak going into this fight. He has amassed a respectable record while fighting in the UFC, although he seems to falter whenever the level of competition is stepped up. Because of his tendency to lose the bigger fights, he has never yet had the opportunity to fight for the belt during his 4 year career with the organization. A win here over Stevenson would give him a big name victory to put on his resume and put him on a 4 fight winning streak. It would also place him among the top contenders in the LW division. A victory for Fisher will put him one step closer to finally getting that title fight.

I think Stevenson is going to be that step up in competition which ends Fisher’s streak once again. I am giving the win here to Joe Stevenson by a unanimous decision. Spencer Fisher seems great against lower tier fighters, but the holes in his game become abundantly clear when he fights the top dogs. Joe Stevenson has looked great as of late and Spencer Fisher simply can’t handle his level of skill.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Anthony Johnson is a young, powerful and very dangerous prospect in the Welterweight division. He has been making quite an impression as of late with notable KO victories over Kevin Burns and Luigi Fioravanti. Johnson has been getting some attention lately for his exciting knockouts; another one here over Yoshida will be sure to put him in the spotlight again, and hopefully he can capitalize on the opportunity.

Before joining the UFC in 2008,Yoshiyuki Yoshida competed in the welterweight division at Cage Force. Yoshida went on a tear through the organization, racking up a 7 fight win streak to become the welterweight tournament champion. Since then, Yoshida has gone 2-1 in the octagon, with a brutal KO loss to Josh Koscheck. Yoshida is looking to prove that he can compete in the UFC; and a victory over Anthony Johnson will help him to be taken as a serious prospect in the welterweight division.

This fight will be interesting because both guys have two drastically different fighting styles. Anthony Johnson is essentially a kickboxer who will be looking to keep the fight standing. Yoshida is a 4^th degree black belt in Judo who is going to be looking to use his clinch and trips to avoid trading blows with the bigger and harder hitting Johnson. I find myself rooting for Yoshida, but this fight is going to play out just like Yoshida’s bout with Koscheck, meaning Yoshida is going to be rocked early in the fight. I can see Anthony Johnson pulling off the victory by knockout within the first two rounds. While Yoshida has great Judo he never seems to utilize it enough to his advantage and Johnson is just too strong and hits too hard. Yoshida is going to try to trade blows with the young prospect, and he is going to end up going to bed early on Saturday night.

Prelim Bonus Picks:

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer

Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan

Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley